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Super Wild Card Weekend is here, and I pick out my favorite value TD scorers for the weekend. For the start of the playoffs, I have a shortie, mid-odds, and a longshot over both days.

Indianapolis vs. Buffalo Bills

Saturday, January 9^th, 2021 – 1:05 PM ET at Bills Stadium

The first game of Super wild card weekend is the 7^th seed vs. the 2^nd seed in the AFC as the 11-5 Colts travel to the 13-3 Bills in what is predicted to be one of the highest-scoring games of the weekend. The Bills are ranked as the 3rd best team left according to Super Bowl odds, and that’s fully deserved given how they finished the season. They won 7 of the final 8 games by at least 10 points, and they covered the spread in all of them. The offense is ticking, and the defense got better as the season went on.

It’s the other side of the ball I’m looking at for a bit of value, though, and it’s not the leading rookie rusher. Although -125 for him to find the endzone isn’t a bad price at all, I just don’t like tipping anything under even money on here after ending the season with 7 TDs in his final 4 games.

It’s the RB2 who I’m looking at to find the endzone. Hines has been mainly the second back this season but gets involved a lot more in the passing game, and even with Taylor leading the team in carries he had 6 receptions last week against the Jags. I expect the Colts to be trailing in this one, which should mean they have to pass the ball. Hence, more and more of Hines on the field.

NFL Pick:Nyheim Hines anytime TD +180 at Intertops (visit our Intertops Review)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Football Team

Saturday, January 10^th, 2021 - 8:15 PM ET at Fedex Field

The Bucs enter the playoffs with the draw that every team wanted to get. They have a chance to play the winner of the NFC East, which ended up being Washington, who backed their way in after the Eagles gave up their game against them in the season closer last week.

The Bucs finished the season on a great run, admittedly against poor defenses, but they put up at least 24 points in each of the final 7 games they played, including a couple of 40-burgers in the last two games against the Lions and Falcons. They face a far better defense here, but Brady has been playing well and spreading the ball around his receivers to find the open man.

Increasingly at the end of the year, that open man was Antonio Brown, who was at one time the best in the league. He looks like he might be getting closer to that form, and with Mike Evans expected to either miss or be limited in this game, I think his targets will increase. I like him to find the endzone in this one.

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It's likely to be a fairly low-scoring game. Washington's games went Under the sportsbooks' totals in all of their last 5 games, but the Bucs usually score through the air, and I think Brady will throw at least 3 in this one.

NFL Pick:Antonio Brown anytime TD +110 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans

Sunday, January 10^th, 2021 - 1:00 PM ET at Nissan Stadium

A rematch of the AFC divisional game that the Titans won last year in Baltimore is expected to be the highest-scoring game of the whole weekend. It should be a high-scoring affair with a lot of rushing as that’s where both teams excel.

Obviously everyone knows and expects the rushing games to be highly utilized, and as such, the prices on TD scorers from that aspect are quite short. Henry at -200, Dobbins and Jackson both under even money for the Ravens. My boy Gus Edwards is usually above evens, and +175 on him are good NFL odds, considering the number of points expected in this game.

But I’m looking to the passing game. With the Ravens averaging under 200 yards per game through the air, it’s the Titans with Ryan Tannehill throwing 33 TDs this year that I’m looking at. AJ Brown is the obvious selection, even Corey Davis, but after I’m shooting for the moon with Anthony Firkser, who scored twice in the post-season last year, including against the Ravens.

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NFL Pick:Anthony Firkser anytime TD +500 at Intertops

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

The Conference Championship games are here, with the 1 seeds hosting in their respective conferences. The Packers will take on the Bucs in the NFC, while the Chiefs will matchup against the Bills in the AFC. Find out my favorite value picks for TD scorers in this Sunday’s games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers

Sunday, January 24^th, 2021 – 3:05 PM ET at Lambeau Field

The NFC Championship game sees the Bucs traveling up to Lambeau to take on the Packers. It’s never easy for a warm-weather team to go North, but Tom Brady is definitely used to the cold from his years in New England, so the most important man on the team shouldn’t be bothered by the expected mid-20s temperatures. It looks like there’s a minor chance of snow, but the ground should be fine, and the NFL total has increased over the last couple of days, so people seem to think there will be points.

One bit of news that came out over the last couple of days is that Antonio Brown is out. So each pass-catcher beyond Evans and Godwin probably moves up the pecking order a little, and that’s where I’m looking for a bit of value here. The Packers have one very good cornerback in Jaire Alexander, you’d think he’ll be mainly on Evans, and that Godwin should get a lot of work in the slot.

I’m hoping that the good connection that Scotty Miller built with Tom Brady early in the season remains, as well as the beautiful move he pulled at the line of scrimmage last week late in the game, and he’ll take a few of the targets that Brown would have received. He’s scored 3 this year, mostly on deep shots, and the weather shouldn’t affect that aspect of Brady’s game here.

I’m also interested in Cameron Brate at tight end for them, again I think he’ll get more targets with AB out, and in recent weeks has been more involved in the passing game than Gronk has. He actually led the team in receiving yards last week with 50 from 4 receptions (a quarter of Brady’s yards). Two for this game then.

TD Scorers:

• Scotty Miller anytime TD +350 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

• Cameron Brate anytime TD +350 at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

My Sportsbook Ag

Sunday, January 17^th, 2021 - 3:05 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium

The Bills make their first championship game since 1993 after beating the Ravens last week to face the Chiefs. These are very similar teams, with the same strengths, and both can score points at the drop of a hat. So you’ve got to be expecting a lot of points in this one, and that should mean a lot of TDs being scored. The Super Bowl odds have the Chiefs as favorites to win the whole thing, and 3 point favorites are about right for this game.

Due to the high scoring expected, there’s a distinct lack of value in TD scorer odds. Hill and Kelce unsurprisingly are heavily odds-on, so it’s trying to pick the best of the rest. The Chiefs look likely to be without Bashaud Breeland at corner, which should help out the likes of John Brown (+200), and Gabriel Davis (+300), both of whom are priced nicely at the best betting sites.

Dawson Knox at +250 is under consideration at tight end for the Bills, the Chiefs allowed 9 TDs to the position in the regular season, and Knox has already scored in the post-season.

On the Chiefs side of the ball, Mahomes will be playing as expected. Hill and Kelce are short on odds, so it’s picking your poison from the likes of Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and probably Clyde Edwards-Helaire (if he’s back from injury). I went for Robinson last week, and he didn’t make any catches. Hardman was involved a lot, and Edwards-Helaire should put up yards if he’s fit enough. They’re all avoidable for me to be honest.

For my NFL Picks, I’m plumping for someone on the Bills side of the ball. I’ll go for Smokey to make his mark, he finished last week with 8 from 11 targets last week, and Allen likes him.

TD Scorer:John Brown anytime TD +200 at BetOnline

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